The 2016-based GLA employment-led population projections provide population trajectories consistent with past demographic trends and projected employment growth.

The populations are tied to GLA Economics assumptions of future GVA growth and labour demand (workforce jobs) under three core scenarios: low, central and high. The model reconciles population with available jobs through assumptions about future rates of unemployment. The population itself is varied by changes to the level of international in-migration.

The populations defined by the low and high employment scenarios indicate a range within which population might be expected to fall given the model assumptions. They are intended to assist stakeholders and policy makers in understanding how London’s population might evolve over the coming decades during a period of economic uncertainty.